The US-Flag Domestic-Trade (Jones Act) Tank Vessel Fleet

The four charts on this page illustrate the changes in the Jones Act tank vessel fleet since the passage of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, (OPA 90):

• The first chart shows that Jones Act crude carrier operators have completed the renewal of their fleets, settling at a new level that is about one third of the 1990 level of capacity, a reduction that reflects the reduction in output from the North Slope.

• The second chart shows that Jones Act product carrier operators have only very recently got around to renewing their fleets but are now planning a significant volume of new construction.  Even so, they are not currently planning to rebuild to the 1990 level of capacity.  These figures should, however, be viewed in conjunction with those on the next two charts.

• The third chart shows that Jones Act tank barge operators have been systematically renewing their fleets ever since the passage of OPA 90 and are heading for a significant increase in its total capacity, almost twice the 1990 level, with the obvious goal of taking market share from the product carriers.

• The fourth chart combines the gross numbers from the second and third charts to show the size of the products fleet as a whole, self-propelled or not.  The low point in capacity was apparently reached in 2005 and total capacity is now increasing.  Since demand in this trade is basically steady, if not declining, it looks as though we will have excess capacity in 2010, but the retirement of the single-side, double-bottom ships will then have the effect of bringing us back into balance by 2015.

So, two questions:

• How many of those options for more product carriers will be exercised?

• How many GoM shuttle tankers - a totally new market sector - will be needed?